Comments on Astronaut for Hire: Earthquake and Tsunami Prediction

We'll find out in two days!

2009-07-19T19:48:29.845-10:00

We'll find out in two days!

If we could do research that correlates earthquake...

2009-07-19T19:22:56.673-10:00

If we could do research that correlates earthquakes to tides, then you are right we should be able to predict them all the time.

But your logic seem a bit flawed... Isn't that what they are doing with this eclipse? Making a precition based on historical correlations?

Thanks for sharing that paper. I haven't read it,...

2009-07-13T21:56:21.417-10:00

Thanks for sharing that paper. I haven't read it, but I will try to look at it the first chance I get. Since I'm away on an expedition now, if someone could email me the paper, I could read if while I'm here.

As someone interested in both the solid earth and orbital mechanics, I will probably find the paper very interesting. My guess is that it relies heavily upon statistics to look back in the historical record to find a correlation between the tides and seismicity. The real prize is predicting future events with some degree of reliability, and I'm pretty sure these guys can't do that because if they could we'd be successfully predicting earthquakes all of the time.

Here is a 2001 paper published in Tawain indicatin...

2009-07-13T07:31:49.949-10:00

Here is a 2001 paper published in Tawain indicating a relationship between the lunar tides and earthquakes. Is this valid?

http://www.springerlink.com/content/y8r15x9n9qrn8upq/

It's not meaningful to say there are any odds for ...

2009-07-10T16:09:54.631-10:00

It's not meaningful to say there are any odds for predicting earthquakes or tsunamis since there is no scientific way at present to do so. For earthquakes, the best we can do is say that there is a certain percent probability of a earthquake of a given size on a specific fault in the next given number of years. For example, in California, the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%.

http://www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-...

2009-07-10T16:01:44.242-10:00

http://www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-July22-Tsunami-Hoax/index.php

sorry... correct link above

http://www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-...

2009-07-10T16:00:18.720-10:00

http://www.earthobservatory.sg/news/2009/20090415-july22-Tsunami-Hoax/index.php

What are the odds of correctly predicting an earthquake and tsunami?

Thanks for pointing out the Chinese link. I find ...

2009-07-10T07:48:07.004-10:00

Thanks for pointing out the Chinese link. I find it highly suspect. They don't cite any scientific publications supporting their claim, and I know that almost no seismologist in the western world would give much credence to this theory. This sentence in particular raises red flags:

"The new principles of space quantum physics automatically lead to a revised gravitation theory as postulated by Oliver Crane, identifying a cosmic mechanical down-pressure instead of the gravity or mass attraction taught in traditional physics."

Huh? How could "space quantum physics" have anything to do with the macro-movement of tectonic faults? They also claim that the "centrifugal force pushes the earth’s crust outward." Well, sure there is a centrifugal force due to the earth's rotation, but its effect on the crust is negligible. Besides, the earth always rotates. This isn't anything unusual. The alignment due to the eclipse will produce extra gravitational forces so minor that it won't cause major fault slippage.

They also say that a supernova and " cosmic and planetary constellations" can trigger earthquakes. This makes no sense at all. I'm forced to conclude this theory falls squarely in the same realm as astrology. It's not science.

Either this page is a hoax, or the Chinese Institute for Space Quantum Physics needs to do some serious work on explaining itself.

There is another warning for the July 22nd 2009 so...

2009-07-10T05:31:18.170-10:00

There is another warning for the July 22nd 2009 solar eclipse causing earthquakes in China. This one is made by a known scientist with a background in physics. What do you make of this?

http://www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm